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How to Make the Pandemic History

As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third year, millions of people around the world remain in the grip of fear and uncertainty, owing to our collective failure to achieve universal vaccination. Still, three upcoming events offer world leaders a chance to begin to remove this moral stain.

SEOUL – With 124 million new COVID-19 cases worldwide since the start of 2022, and with the COVID-19 virus spreading, mutating, and stalking even the fully vaccinated, the world faces a grim truth: everyone will live in fear until no one lives in fear. That is why world leaders must resolve that 2022 will be the year when we finally bring the pandemic under control.

Three upcoming meetings present immediate opportunities to agree on the essential funding necessary to stop the pandemic and avert future ones: the G20 finance ministers’ summit this month, the United Nations High-Level meeting on universal vaccination immediately thereafter, and the reconvening of US President Joe Biden’s global vaccine summit in March. World leaders will not be starting from scratch. The international COVAX facility has delivered more than 1.1 billion vaccine doses, primarily to the poorest countries, and the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-A) has provided more diagnostics, therapeutics, and treatments.

Still, more than 12 months after the first vaccinations, and with enough vaccine doses (more than 12 billion) now manufactured to immunize the entire world, only one in a hundred (and one in two hundred tests) have gone to low-income countries. Low-income countries’ pitifully low share of fully vaccinated people – just 5% (and 11% in Africa) contrasts starkly with the 72% rate in high-income countries. This gap suggests that we value human life in the Global South far less than in the richer North. This is not just a medical or logistical failure; it is a moral one.

To erase this stain on our collective soul, we urgently need to raise $16.8 billion in grant financing for ACT-A, the coordinating partnership for expanding access to vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics. That is how we will reach the global targets of vaccinating 70% of each country’s population by mid-2022, procuring treatments for 120 million patients, ensuring at least one test per thousand people per day, and protecting 2.7 million health workers with personal protective equipment.

Of the funding that ACT-A needs this year, only around $800 million has been raised so far. Some $16 billion more must be found in the early months of 2022. While some of the funding is for research and development and for reserves of global supplies, $7.2 billion will be directed to serve the needs of African Union members for vaccines and other medical provisions.

Sixteen billion dollars sounds like a huge request. But the bill is more than 300 times smaller than the $5.3 trillion that the International Monetary Fund estimates will be lost by 2025 if we fail to vaccinate everyone. Indeed, that $16 billion breaks down to an average of just $0.10 per week for each citizen of the 55 countries to whom the ACT-A co-chairs, Norway and South Africa, have appealed for funds.

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We also urgently need a long-term financial commitment to prepare for and prevent future pandemics, as recommended in reports by the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, co-chaired by Helen Clark and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf; the G20 High-Level Panel, co-chaired by Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; and the WHO Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development, chaired by Mario Monti. The recommendations contained in these reports must be implemented now, because we cannot afford to wait until the next pandemic. Estimated to cost around $15 billion per year – with $10 billion per year for infrastructure – these investments would surely be the best insurance policy the world could ever have.

Moreover, the WHO and other global health organizations cannot do all the work that is needed if they continue to be funded on an ad hoc voluntary basis. This arrangement seems more suited to an annual charity fundraiser than to the serious and sustained task of underwriting the provision of the purest of public goods: health and the control of infectious disease.

There are three available sources of sustainable long-term finance, all of which could be agreed at Biden’s COVID-19 summit next month.

First, countries should agree on an equitable burden-sharing formula, following the model of how we fund the United Nations’ core and peacekeeping budgets and the IMF and the World Bank. To their credit, the ACT-A chairs have proposed a formula designed to inform decision-making on appropriate and necessary levels of voluntary grant contributions by the 55 countries asked to contribute, and we urge support for this initiative. The United States and the European Union (together with the United Kingdom) would each contribute around 25% of the total, with the rest of the world contributing smaller amounts based on their ability to pay.

Second, the IMF, the World Bank, and the regional development banks should immediately offer additional health financing for 2022. The World Bank and the regional development banks have an enhanced role to play in local capacity-building; and a new IMF vaccine facility should be extended to pay for the administration of doses. Those countries that have agreed to share $100 billion of their allocations of IMF special drawing rights (the Fund’s reserve asset) should immediately provide low-income countries with the liquidity to upgrade their health-care systems.

Finally, we need to be more innovative in sourcing these funds. For example, by leveraging $2 billion in guarantees by richer countries, we can create an international health-financing facility that – together with $1.5 billion in grants – would raise an additional $10 billion for global health, particularly for poorer countries. And we should explore options such as expanding the range of the solidarity levy, which has directed $1.25 billion from airline taxes to health since 2005.

There also should be greater engagement with the corporate sector – which stands to benefit from the full resumption of economic activity – and especially with pharmaceutical companies, which have now admitted that they have not done enough for poor countries. Finally, additional financial support from foundations should be sought.

Only through such solidarity can we make the COVID-19 pandemic history. That can – and therefore must – happen this year.

This commentary is signed by: María Elena Agüero, Secretary General of the WLA-Club de Madrid¹; Masood Ahmed, President of the Center for Global Development, Director of the IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department (2008-16); Shamshad Akhtar, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP, Assistant Secretary-General at UN DESA (2013-18), Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (2006-09)²; Rashid Alimov, Secretary-General Shanghai Cooperation Organization (2016-19), Minister of Foreign Affairs Tajikistan (1992-94)³; Farida Allaghi, Ambassador of Libya to the European Union (2015-16)³; Amat Alsoswa, UN Assistant-Secretary-General and UNDP Assistant Administrator and Regional Director for the Arab States Bureau (2006-12)²; Abdulaziz Altwaijri, former director General of ISESCO³; Nava Ashraf, Professor of Economics and Research Director of the Marshall Institute, LSE; Jan Peter Balkenende, Prime Minister of the Netherlands (2002-10)¹; Joyce Banda, President of Malawi (2012-14)¹; Oriana Bandiera; Sir Anthony Atkinson Chair in Economics, LSE; Kaushik Basu, President of the International Economic Association, Chief Economist of the World Bank (2012-16); Erik Berglöf, Director of the Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics, Chief Economist of the EBRD (2006-14); Suman Bery, Chief Economist at Royal Dutch Shell (2012-16), Director-General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi; Amar Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution; Ana Birchall, Deputy Prime Minister of Romania (2018-19), former Minister of Justice of Romania³; Valdis Birkavs, Prime Minister of Latvia (1993-94)¹; Mario Blejer, Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina (2002), Director of the Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England (2003-08); Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO (2009-17)²; Patrick Bolton, Professor of Finance and Economics, Imperial College London, Professor, Columbia University; Kjell Magne Bondevik, Prime Minister of Norway (1997-2000, 2001-05)¹; Lakhdar Brahimi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Algeria (1991-93)⁵; María Eugenia Brizuela de Ávila, Minister of Foreign Affairs of El Salvador (1999-2004)²; John Bruton, Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland (1994-97)¹⁵; Robin Burgess, Professor of Economics, LSE; Micheline Calmy-Rey, President of Switzerland (2007; 2011)¹⁵; Kim Campbell, Prime Minister of Canada (1993)¹; Fernando Henrique Cardoso, President of Brazil (1995-2003)¹; Wendy Carlin, Professor of Economics, University College London; Hikmet Cetin, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey (1991-94), Speaker of the Grand National Assembly (1997-99), Deputy Prime Minister (1995)³⁵; Lynda Chalker, Minister of Overseas Development of the United Kingdom (1989-1997)⁵; Bai Chong-En, Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University; Joe Clark, Prime Minister of Canada (1979-1980)⁵; Marie-Louise Coleiro-Preca, President of Malta¹; Emil Constantinescu, President of Romania (1996-2000)³; Diane Coyle CBE, Co-Director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge; Chester Crocker, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, United States (1981-89)⁵; Marzuki Darusman, Attorney General of Indonesia (1999-2001)⁵; Herman De Croo, President of the Chamber of Representatives of Belgium (1999-2007)³; Nathalie De Gaulle, Chairwoman and Co-founder of NB-INOV, Founder of Under 40³; Kemal Derviş, Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey (2001-02), Administrator of UNDP (2005-09), Senior Fellow Global Economy and Development, Brookings Institute; Mathias Dewatripont, Professor of Economics, Université libre de Bruxelles; Beatrice Weder di Mauro, President, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute in Geneva; Božidar Djelić, Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia (2007-11); Jamie Drummond, Co-Founder of ONE.org; Victor J. Dzau, President of the National Academy of Medicine; Hans Eichel, Minister of Finance of the Federal Republic of Germany (1999-2005), Co-Founder of the G20; Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley; Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (1997-2009)⁵; María Fernanda Espinosa, President of the UN General Assembly (2018-19), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ecuador (2007; 2017-18) and Minister of Defence (2012-14)³; Gareth Evans, Foreign Minister of Australia (1988-96), President and CEO of International Crisis Group (2000-09)⁵; Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Jan Fischer, Prime Minister of the Czech Republic (2009-10), Finance Minister (2013-14)³; Louise Fréchette, UN Deputy Secretary-General (1998-2006)⁵; Chiril Gaburici, Prime Minister of Moldova (2015), Minister of Economy and Infrastructure (2018-19)³; Ahmed Galal, Finance Minister of Egypt (2013-14); Maitreesh Ghatak, Professor of Economics, LSE; Lawrence Gonzi, Prime Minister of Malta (2004-13)⁵; Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, President of Croatia (2015-20)³; Dalia Grybauskaitė, President of the Republic of Lithuania (2009-19)¹; Sergei Guriev, Chief Economist of the EBRD (2016-19), Professor of Economics, Sciences Po; Alfred Gusenbauer, Chancellor of Austria (2007-08)¹; Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (2004-14)³; Dalia Itzik, Interim President of Israel (2007), President of the Knesset (2006-09)³; Mladen Ivanić, Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2014-18)³; Asad Jamal, Founder & Chairman of ePlanet Capital; Harold James, Professor of European Studies and Professor of History and International Affairs, Princeton University; Robert Johnson, President, Institute for New Economic Thinking; T. Anthony Jones, Vice-President and Executive Director of the Gorbachev Foundation of North America¹; Jerry Jones, Executive Vice-President, Ethics and Legal Officer at Live Ramp; Lee Jong-Wha, Professor of Economics, Korea University, Chief Economist and Head of the Office of Regional Economic Integration at the Asian Development Bank (2007-13); Ivo Josipović, President of Croatia (2010-15)¹³; Kerry Kennedy, President of Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights³; Homi` Kharas, Vice-President, Brookings Institution; Jadranka Kosor, Prime Minister of Croatia (2009-11)³; Anne Krueger, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF (2001-06), Senior Research Professor of International Economics, School for Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Leonid Kuchma, President of Ukraine (1994-2005)³; Aleksander Kwaśniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005)¹; Rachel Kyte, Dean of The Fletcher School, Tufts University, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All (2016-19), World Bank Group VP and Special Envoy (2012-15)²; Luis Alberto Lacalle Herrera, President of Uruguay (1990-95)¹; Ricardo Lagos, President of Chile (2000-06), Member of the Elders¹⁴; Zlatko Lagumdzija, Prime Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2001-02), Foreign Affairs Minister (2012-15)³; Yves Leterme, Prime Minister of Belgium (2008; 2009-11)³; Alexander Likhotal, Professor at the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations; Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank (2008-12), Dean of Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University³; Petru Lucinschi, President of Moldova (1997-2001)³; Igor Luksic, Prime Minister of Montenegro (2010-12), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2012-16)³; Nora Lustig, President Emeritus of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Professor of Latin American Economics, Tulane University; Mauricio Macri, President of Argentina (2015-19)¹; Susana Malcorra, UN Under-Secretary-General for Field Support (2008-12), Chief of Cabinet to UN Secretary-General (2012-15), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Argentina (2015-17)¹; Moussa Mara, Prime Minister of Mali (2014-15)³; Giorgi Margvelashvili, President of Georgia (2013-18)³; Dalia Marin, Professor Emeritus, University of Munich; Colin Mayer CBE, Professor of Management Studies, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford; Péter Medgyessy, Prime Minister of Hungary (2002-04)³; Rexhep Meidani, President of Albania (1997-2002)¹³; Stjepan Mesić, President of Croatia (2000-10)³; James Michel, President of Seychelles (2004-16)¹; Fetus Mogae, President of Botswana (1998-2008)³; Amre Moussa, Secretary General of the Arab League (2001-11), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt (1991-2001), Board Member of NGIC³; Rovshan Muradov, Secretary General of NGIC³; Joseph Muscat, Prime Minister of Malta (2013-20)³; Mustapha Kamel Nabli, Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia (2011-12); Piroska Nagy-Mohácsi, Programme Director of the Institute of Global Affairs, LSE, Director of Policy, EBRD (2009-15); Bujar Nishani, President of Albania (2012-17)³; José Antonio Ocampo, Professor, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University¹; Lord Jim O'Neill, Chair of Chatham House; Djoomart Otorbaev, Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan (2014-15)³; Leif Pagrotsky, Minister of Industry and Trade and Minister of Culture and Education of Sweden (1996-2006); Ana Palacio, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain (2002-04)⁵; Anand Panyarachun, Prime Minister of Thailand (1991-92)¹; Andrés Pastrana, President of Colombia (1998-2002)¹; P.J. Patterson, Prime Minister of Jamaica (1992-2005)¹⁵ ; Thomas R. Pickering, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (1997-2000), Ambassador to the UN (1989-92)⁵; Sir Christopher Pissarides, Nobel Laureate for Economics (2010), Professor of Economics and Political Science, LSE; Rosen Plevneliev, President of Bulgaria (2012-17)³; Richard Portes CBE, Professor of Economics, London Business School, Founder and Honorary President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research; Jorge Tuto Quiroga, President of Bolivia (2001-02)¹; José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor Leste (2007-12)¹⁵; Abdelraouf Rawabdeh, Prime Minister of Jordan (1999-2000), President of the Senate (2013-15)³; Paul Revay, former Director Trilateral Europe³; Hélène Rey, Professor of Economics, London Business School; José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Prime Minister of Spain (2004-11)¹; Dani Rodrik, President-Elect of the International Economic Association, Professor of International Political Economy, Harvard University; Gérard Roland, Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley; Petre Roman, Prime Minister of Romania (1989-91), Speaker of the Parliament (1996-2000)¹³; Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister of Australia (2007-10; 2013)⁵; Isabel Saint Malo, Vice President of Panama (2014-19)²; Kailash Satyarthi, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate (2014), Founder of Bachpan Bachao Andolan, Global March Against Child Labour and Global Campaign for Education³; Wolfgang Schüssel, Chancellor of Austria (2000-07)¹; Hedva Ser, Goodwill Ambassador of UNESCO³; Ismail Serageldin, Vice President of the World Bank (1992-2000), Co-Chair of NGIC³; Rosalía Arteaga Serrano, President of Ecuador (1997)³; Han Seung-Soo, Prime Minister of the Rep. of Korea (2008-09)¹; Jenny Shipley, Prime Minister of New Zealand (1997-99)¹; Juan Somavia, Director General of ILO (1999-2012); Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate for Economics (2001), William R. Berkley Professor in Economics & Business, NYU⁴; Eduardo Stein, Vice President of Guatemala (2004-08)⁵; Lord Nicholas Stern, Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank (2000-03), Chief Economist of the EBRD (1994-99) and Professor of Economics and Government, LSE; Joseph Stiglitz, Chief Economist of the World Bank (1997-2000), Nobel Laureate for Economics (2001), Professor, Columbia University⁴; Petar Stoyanov, President of Bulgaria (1997-2002)³; Boris Tadić, President of Serbia (2004-12)³, Jigme Yoser Thinley, Prime Minister of Bhutan (2008-13)¹; Eka Tkeshelashvili, Deputy Prime Minister of Georgia (2010-12)³; Aminata Touré, Prime Minister of Senegal (2013-14)¹; Elbegdorj Tsakhia, President of Mongolia (2009-17)¹; Danilo Türk, President of Slovenia (2007-12)¹; Cassam Uteem, President of Mauritius (1992-2002)¹⁵; Andrés Velasco, Finance Minister of Chile (2006-10), Dean of the School of Public Policy, LSE; Vaira Vike-Freiberga, President of Latvia (1999-2007)⁵; Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, President, Mannheim University (2012-19), Professor, Economics Department; Filip Vujanović, President of Montenegro (2003-18)³; Leonard Wantchekon, Founder and President of the African School of Economics, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University; Kevin Watkins, Former Chief Executive, Save the Children; Shang-Jin Wei, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank (2014-16), Professor of Chinese Business and Economy and Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School; Abigail Wright, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; Yasar Yakish. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey (2002-03)³; Yu Yongding, President of the China Society of World Economy (2004-06), Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, China Academy of Social Sciences; Kateryna Yushchenko, First Lady of Ukraine (2005-10), Board Member of NGIC³; Viktor Yushchenko, President of Ukraine (2005-10)³ ; Valdis Zatlers, President of Latvia (2007-11)³; and Ernesto Zedillo, President of Mexico (1994-2000), Member of The Elders¹⁴.

¹ Member of the World Leadership Alliance-Club de Madrid
² Member of Global Women Leaders: Voices for Change and Inclusion
³ Member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center
⁴ Member of the Berggruen Institute 21st Century Council
⁵ Member of Global Leadership Foundation

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